Election poll tracker LIVE: Tories wobbling as seat forecast for Boris plunges

THERE are just nine days to go until the December 12 election and the bitterly-fought campaign is almost over, with nothing left to do by wait for polling day. Here is all the latest from the opinion polls and odds.PUBLISHED: 10:11, Tue, Dec 3, 2019 | UPDATED: 13:53, Tue, Dec 3, 2019 Prime Minister Boris…

THERE are just nine days to go until the December 12 election and the bitterly-fought campaign is almost over, with nothing left to do by wait for polling day. Here is all the latest from the opinion polls and odds.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will step back from election campaigning for the next two days as he hosts the 70th anniversary NATO summit in London. But with every move closely watched by voters, it’s not a done deal, and the results of next week’s vote is anything but certain. Follow Express.co.uk below as we track the latest from the opinion polls ahead of the December 12 snap election.

ELECTORAL CALCULUS

The latest polls from the Electoral Calculus show a major drop in support for the Tories since election campaigning began.

Ahead of the official trigger of this campaign, Electoral Calculus forecasted the Tories could win a massive majority of 76 seats – now, that has dropped to 34.

A win is a win, of course, but it does indicate that Mr Johnson might not be as safe as he’d hoped, and election day could still provide some surprises.

READ MORE: General election LIVE: Labour panic as ‘Achilles heel’ exposed by poll

UK election polls tracker LIVE

UK election polls tracker LIVE: There are just 10 days to go until the December 12 election (Image: Getty/Express)

The latest Electoral Calculus poll was conducted between November 26 and 30 and polled 8,914 people:

  • Conservative: 43.3 percent
  • Labour: 32.6 percent
  • Liberal Democrats: 13.3 percent
  • Brexit Party: 3 percent
  • Green Party: 3 percent
  • SNP: 3.7 percent
  • Plaid Cymru: 0.6 percent
  • UKIP: 0 percent
  • Other: 0.4 percent

UK election polls tracker LIVE

UK election polls tracker LIVE: The latest Electoral Calculus poll (Image: Express)

SURVATION

The latest from Survation on behalf of Good Morning Britain also shows Labour narrowing its lead.

The poll was conducted between November 26 and 30 of 1,065 people:

  • Conservative: 42 percent
  • Labour: 33 percent
  • Liberal Democrats: 11 percent
  • The Brexit Party: 3 percent
  • Green: 4 percent
  • Another party (inc Plaid Cymru, SNP): 7 percent

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POLITICO

  • The Politico ‘poll of polls’, which is a national aggregation of all available online polls, shows similar results to Survation:
  • Conservative: 43 percent
  • Labour: 33 percent
  • Liberal Democrats: 13 percent
  • SNP: 3 percent
  • Brexit Party: 3 percent
  • Green: 2 percent

UK election polls tracker LIVE

UK election polls tracker LIVE: Latest from Politico (Image: Politico)

OPINIUM

Elsewhere in polling, however, Boris Johnson is maintaining a fierce lead over Mr Corbyn.

The latest conducted by Opinium from November 27 showed the Tory lead drop slightly, but still holding strong over Labour:

  • Conservative: 46 percent
  • Labour: 31 percent
  • Liberal Democrats:13 percent
  • SNP: 4 percent
  • Brexit Party: 2 percent
  • Green: 2 percent
  • Other: 2 percent

UK election polls tracker LIVE

UK election polls tracker LIVE: Latest from Opinium (Image: Opinium)

YOUGOV

YouGov has published a major poll, known as a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll, conducted for the Times, and the results show Labour will be all but devastated.

The results of their live poll trackers, last updated on November 29, are as follows:

  • Conservative: 43 percent
  • Labour: 34 percent
  • Liberal Democrats: 13 percent
  • Brexit Party: 2 percent
  • Green: 3 percent
  • Other: 5 percent

UK election polls tracker LIVE

UK election polls tracker LIVE: Latest from YouGov (Image: YouGov)

LATEST ODDS

While neither polls nor odds can accurately predict the outcome of an election, a look at the bookies is another good way of gauging public mood.

Oddschecker’s projections are indicating the Tories are on track for 351 seats after the general election, which would be a majority of 25 seats.

The bookies are offering 1/20 odds-on favourites for the Tories, with 12/1 that Labour will secure a majority, 100/1 it will be the Lib Dems in control, and a dismal 250/1 for a Brexit Party majority.

Election poll tracker LIVE

Election poll tracker LIVE: The bookies’ forecast (Image: Express)

There are, however, three seats currently cited as ‘too close to call’, with bookies unable to split the Conservatives and Labour in both Bolsover and Coventry North West.

The only other seat without a clear favourite is Cheadle, which is split between joint-favourites Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, both priced at 10/11.

Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson said: “While it would seem Boris Johnson is very much under the pump during this election campaign, it feels a tad surprising that the polls indicate more years of Tory leadership on the horizon.

“Then again, Jeremy Corbyn’s divisiveness, coupled with a lack of viable alternatives elsewhere, does make the result of this election feel like an inevitability.”

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