Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that Canada’s military is running war-gaming scenarios for a US invasion.
What Happened
Carney admitted last week that he prepared for a scenario once thought impossible — a US military attack on Canadian soil.
He called it ‘risk management’.
Key Facts
- The likelihood of a US invasion is described as ‘highly improbable’ and the risk as low.
- President Trump has repeatedly suggested Canada could become the 51st US state, sparking concern in Canada.
- Canada’s military has developed a model showing how a US attack might unfold, including a first phase within a week.
- Canada’s defense chief has urged expanding the military to include up to 300,000 lightly trained citizen soldiers.
Why It Matters
A full-scale war between the US and Canada is extremely unlikely.
But the actions show a shift in how the two nations are viewed in public and policy.
Canada’s identity includes a long history of resistance to US expansionism, dating back to 18th-century invasions of British North American colonies.
Historical Context
US forces invaded Montreal in 1775 and nearly captured Quebec City.
During the War of 1812, American troops invaded Upper and Lower Canada, ending in a stalemate.
British forces retaliated by burning the White House.
Expert Views
Former Royal Canadian Air Force officer Lt-Gen Christopher Coates says such a scenario has never been seriously considered in military planning.
Canada and the US are key allies in NATO and NORAD, sharing intelligence and joint operations.
Coates believes any US attack would start with cyber actions, not a direct assault.
Matthew Schmidt, a national security professor at the University of New Haven, says Canada’s preparedness signals a broader shift in global geopolitics.
He notes Canadian leaders must now question how closely they work with the US — especially if the relationship turns hostile.
What to Watch Next
Canada has not released a public defense strategy in response to the war-gaming.
The model suggests guerrilla tactics and a call for support from allies like France and Britain.
US officers may resign if ordered to invade, according to Schmidt.
The White House says it is ‘highly unlikely’ the US would use force against Canada.
A Leger poll from January 2026 found over 30% of Canadians believe a US invasion is likely.
The military model is described as ‘lighter’ than standard combat planning — not a full readiness plan.
It is the first such model in over a century, showing growing awareness of potential threats.
Canada’s defense chief has stressed the need to expand its citizen-soldier force to modernize its military.
No actual conflict is expected. But political rhetoric can drive national preparedness.
Source: BBC News
Sources & further reading
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