Smoke emanates from smokestacks from an oil refinery in Linden, New Jersey, on March 18, 2026.
Kena Betancur | AFP | Getty Images
Oil rose Monday as Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles at Israel and U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly wants to seize Iran’s oil, deepening concerns over escalating risks to Middle East energy flows.
May futures for the Brent crude rose over 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel during early Asia hours, with the international benchmark heading for a record monthly jump, data from LSEG showed.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said his preferred option in Iran would be to “take the oil,” likening it to earlier U.S. actions in Venezuela where Washington effectively gained control over the country’s oil sector after the capture of its leader Nicolás Maduro.
His remarks come as fighting between U.S.-Israel forces and Iran has entered its fifth week, with attacks spreading across the region, heightening risks to energy infrastructure and driving a sharp rally in crude prices.
Oil prices since the start of the year
Yemen’s Houthis said Saturday they had launched missiles at Israel, marking their first direct involvement in the U.S.- Israel war against Iran.
In a post on X, spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it called sensitive Israeli military targets, in support of Iran and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The attack marks a further escalation in the conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said global equities were beginning to reflect a scenario of “higher-for-longer” oil prices and interest rates, as the risk of a prolonged conflict grows.
He warned that the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could deepen the market pullback and raise recession risks, with uncertainty around the conflict, including the possibility of greater U.S. involvement, likely to keep volatility elevated until oil flows normalize.
“The speed and magnitude of the move underscore how quickly energy markets are repricing geopolitical risk, challenging earlier efforts to keep both oil and bond markets anchored, and reinforcing the risk of sustained disruption in the Strait,” Yardeni wrote in a note published Monday.
David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, said markets were increasingly pricing in a more aggressive U.S. response, including the possibility of “boots on the ground” and a move to seize Iran’s key export hub at Kharg Island, through which roughly 90% of the country’s oil flows.
Such a step, he warned, would effectively choke off Iran’s dollar revenues but risk triggering full-scale escalation, with Tehran likely to retaliate by targeting critical infrastructure across the Gulf.
That escalation could fast spill into global supply routes. Roche pointed to the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which carries around 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, warning that any disruption at the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint — where Yemen’s Houthis operate — could severely constrain exports.
Even under alternative routes via the Suez Canal, capacity would be sharply reduced, potentially taking 4 to 5 million barrels per day off the market, he added.
—CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.
