Oscar predictions 2026: Who will win vs. who should win this year

Who will be the “Sinners”?! Sorry — winners.

Sunday night’s Oscars will have some true nail-biter races. One, Best Actor, is the most competitive that category has been in decades. Will it go to Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet or Leonardo DiCaprio? Heck, Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke have a solid shot.

The big fight for Best Picture is between “One Battle After Another” (13 nominations) and “Sinners” (16 — an all-time record). But both big-budget Warner Bros. flicks will definitely have plenty of gold to haul home.

Here, Post critic Johnny Oleksinski picks who will win and who should win at the 2026 Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien on Sunday, March 15, at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

Best Picture

Will Win: “One Battle After Another“

Until the SAG Awards, acclaimed director Paul Thomas Anderson’s politically charged, action-packed satire had cruised through awards season. Its collection of big wins (especially the Producers Guild and BAFTA) almost always add up to an Oscar. And I expect it will again. If “Sinners” sinks its fangs into “One Battle,” it’s the story of the night.

Leonardo DiCaprio as a bearded man with an anxious expression, driving a car with a green beaded rosary hanging from the rearview mirror.

“One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio, has been a juggernaut all season long. ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection

Should Win: “Hamnet“

Movies like this breathtaking film inspired by William Shakespeare and his wife Anne Hathaway — those that are sad, tender, beautifully acted — really only get their much-deserved due and visibility come Oscar time.

Best Actress

Will Win, Should Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet“

What “Bride”? Buckley is phenomenal in “Hamnet.” She’s won every conceivable major precursor award. And she is just the sort of first-time, young, female nominee the Academy loves to honor. Think Mikey Madison, Emma Stone, Brie Larson and Jennifer Lawrence. Except Irish.

“Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been unstoppable all year, including at March’s Actor Awards. REUTERS

Best Actor

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners“

Look, I’m predicting Jordan only because he’s the statistically sensible choice. He won the SAG Actor Award, and none of the nominees emerged victorious at the all-important BAFTAs. So the evidence is on Jordan’s side.

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme“

But Timmy could just as easily win. It’s a toss-up. He has the showier role (I know Jordan plays two separate guys in a vampire movie, but in the final third, the action overwhelms the acting). Or maybe Timmy’s social media stunts distracted from the truth that he is doing career-best work in an already damn good career. This one’s down to the wire.

The Oscar favorite by a hair, Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) took home SAG’s Actor Award in March. Matt Sayles/Shutterstock for The Actor Awards

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win, Should Win: Amy Madigan, “Weapons“

Amy Madigan’s first and, before now, only Oscar nod came in 1986 for the perfectly titled film “Twice in a Lifetime.” This time should go differently. She is well loved among her peers. And it greatly benefits Madigan that her kooky Aunt Gladys arrives late and stays till the end, unlike Teyana Taylor’s Perfidia Beverly Hills, who says “goodbye” early on.

Amy Madigan made a lasting impression with her role of Aunt Gladys in “Weapons.” AP

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another“

After gobbling up the Actor Award and BAFTA, Penn probably wins his third Oscar for playing creepy Col. Lockjaw. Kinda boring, if you ask me.

Should Win: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein“

Much was mediocre about “Frankenstein,” but not Elordi, whose sensitive, expressive performance as the Creature burst through mounds of makeup and prosthetics. Lindo would be a nice win, too.

Sean Penn could win his third Oscar for playing Col. Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another.” WireImage

Best Director

Will Win, Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another“

“One Battle,” while not my favorite film of the year, was clearly a beast to put together. Credit that feat to Anderson, the brilliant director of “Boogie Nights,” “There Will Be Blood,” “Magnolia” and “Licorice Pizza,” who, at 55, is already one of the greats. He’s egregiously never won before.

Paul Thomas Anderson is the heavy favorite to win Best Director. AFP via Getty Images

Best International Film

Will Win: “Sentimental Value,” Norway

Joachim Trier’s overrated movie has recognizable stars (Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning) and the most scenes spoken in English.

Should Win: “It Was Just An Accident,” France

Although submitted by France, this Iranian movie by Jafar Panahi was a hilarious, captivating and stinging rebuke of his country’s oppressive regime. Talk about a relevant movie.

  • “The Secret Agent,” Brazil
  • “Sirāt,” Spain
  • “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia

Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning are two major appeals of Norway’s “Sentimental Value.” AP

Best Song

Will Win, Should Win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”

“Golden” is so damn catchy, and it’s the only nominee that has crossed over into broader pop culture.

  • “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” 
  • “I Lied to You” from “Sinners“
  • “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”
  • “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”

The song “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (above) has exploded in the past year. Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win, Should Win: “Sinners“

Writer-director Coogler had some razor-sharp, terribly creative ideas baked into his script. Most memorable of all was the time-traveling group dance in the juke joint, flanked by flame.

Should Win: “Blue Moon“

But when it comes to pure dialogue, Robert Kaplow’s words for Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart sparkled with wit and pathos in a way few screenplays do anymore.

“Sinners” was praised for shaking up the vampire genre with history, culture and music. Warner Bros.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: “One Battle After Another“

Sometimes the Best Picture winner does not take either screenplay prize. “Nomadland” and “Oppenheimer” both lost in their years. But Anderson is known for being a gifted and clever writer, and made Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland” very much his own.

Should Win: “Hamnet“

Maggie O’Farrell’s popular novel is tricky to adapt for the screen. Yet Zhao and the author restructured the narrative so brilliantly and assuredly that you quickly forget it’s based on anything.

Paul Thomas Anderson could end the night with several awards for “One Battle After Another” (star Chase Infiniti pictured above). AP

Best Animated Feature Film

Will Win, Should Win: “KPop Demon Hunters”

The surprise original hit became Netflix’s most-streamed movie ever last year out of nowhere, and special theatrical sing-a-long screenings did $24 million in business. For the top industry award, that’s gotta count for something.

  • “Arco”
  • “Elio” 
  • “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
  • “Zootopia 2” 

“KPop Demon Hunters” became a worldwide phenomenon, and should scoop up an Oscar. Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection

Best Cinematography

Will Win, Should Win: “One Battle After Another“

That climactic car chase through rolling desert dunes was simply spectacular.

Desert scenes in “One Battle After Another” are unforgettable. Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection

Best Casting

Will Win: “Sinners“

A long overdue category addition, there’s no precedent to statistically suggest who will win this first go-around. But “Sinners” did claim victory at the Artios Awards put on by the Casting Society.

Should Win: “Marty Supreme“

Even the tiniest, unnamed role in the ping-pong picture — and there are a lot! — makes a lasting impression. It was like Josh Safdie put 1950s New York in a time machine and pressed record.

“Sinners” has a strong chance of winning the first-ever casting award at the Oscars. AP

Best Original Score

Will Win: “Sinners“:

Unlike its competitors, music and musicians play a central role in “Sinners,” and a variety of song styles move the storytelling. Pair that with Oscar-winning composer Ludwig Göransson of “Oppenheimer,” and we have a winner.

Should Win: “Hamnet“

Max Richter’s emotional score was every bit as responsible for moving audiences to tears as Zhao’s direction and Buckley’s lead performance.

Ludwig Göransson previously won for “Oppenheimer.” Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP

Best Editing

Will Win, Should Win: “One Battle After Another“

The past three years, the editing and directing prizes have both gone to the Best Picture winner. That’s not always the case, but considering the sprawl and pace of “One Battle,” expect the pattern to repeat.

The past three years, the editing prize winner has gone on to also take Best Picture. That should repeat for “One Battle After Another” (above with Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor). AP

Best Production Design

Will Win: “Frankenstein“

This is one of those technical categories where you can usually swap the word “best” for “most.”

Should Win: “Sinners“

Beyond Coogler’s infusion of music and history, part of what elevated “Sinners” over the usual vampire flick was the dusty beauty of its scenery.

“Frankenstein,” with its elaborate period scenery, is likely to snap up Best Production Design. ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection

Best Costume Design

Will Win, Should Win: “Frankenstein“

Ginormous, period coats and frocks? Count me in!

Best Hair and Makeup Design

Will Win, Should Win: “Frankenstein“

For Elordi’s Creature alone.

“Frankenstein’s” elaborate costumes and makeup, especially for Jacob Elordi (above), make it a force in the technical categories. ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection

Best Visual Effects

Will Win, Should Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash“

Say what you will about “Avatar,” the effects are consistently jaw-dropping. Meanwhile, “Jurassic World Rebirth” looked worse than “Jurassic Park” did 33 years ago.

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” should win the series’ third Visual Effects Oscar. AP

Best Sound

Will Win, Should Win: “F1“

And here’s one for “F1.” The Formula 1 racetrack soundscape — tires screaming against asphalt, lug wrenches springing into action, screaming fans, explosions — was an un-billed character in the movie.

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