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Americans head to the polls on 3 November for the US midterm elections. These elections will determine how the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency unfold. Source: bbc.co.uk.
Trump’s Low Approval Rating
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to about 37%, according to polling data from Silver Bulletin.
Eight years ago, at the same point in his first term, Trump’s approval was 43%. Joe Biden’s rating was 40%. Both presidents lost control of the House in midterms but kept the Senate.
Trump’s low approval now gives Democrats a strong chance to gain control of both chambers of Congress.
The Battle for the House of Representatives
The Republican majority in the House is narrow—218 seats, just one over the threshold needed to maintain control. There is one independent who votes with Republicans.
Of the 435 House seats, only 21 districts are considered ‘toss-ups’—21 districts where either party could win.
- 15 of these toss-ups are currently held by Republicans.
Democrats would need to win five of the toss-up districts, plus 28 districts leaning Democratic, to take control of the House.
Historically, midterms see a significant number of House seats change hands—on average, the president’s party loses 27 seats in a midterm election since 1934.
The Senate Race
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, Democrats 45, with two independents who vote with the Democrats.
Thirty-five Senate seats are up for election. Only seven are considered toss-ups.
- Six of those toss-ups are currently held by Republicans.
- One is held by a Democrat.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats would need to win four of the toss-up seats, plus four seats that are likely or leaning Democratic.
Key races include Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers—a Trump ally and former FBI agent.
Democrats also have a chance in Texas, where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat since 1988, if he defeats Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Key Issues for Voters
Trump promised to ‘end inflation and make America affordable again’ in his 2024 campaign.
This disruption affected consumers directly.
A poll from August found 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran situation.
Other key issues include healthcare and immigration.
Trump has claimed immigration policies have reduced border crossings. Democratic candidates, however, highlight the impact of Trump’s legislation on healthcare access.
Financial Advantage for Republicans
What This Means for Trump
Democrat gains in Congress would significantly limit Trump’s policy influence.
However, Trump’s party has historically outperformed polling in midterms—there is one instance where they won more seats than expected.
Still, the focus after the midterms will shift to what the Democrats stand for, not just what they oppose.
What to Watch Next
After the midterms, attention will turn to the 2028 presidential election.
Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term. The next election will be shaped by the Democratic platform and voter sentiment.
