Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed trails Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll released on Thursday. Rogers leads El-Sayed 51 percent to 47 percent among registered voters, giving the Republican a four-point advantage in the closely watched contest, but within the survey’s margin of error.
El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in August, setting up a general election matchup with Rogers, a former congressman who is seeking a return to Washington. The race is expected to be competitive as Republicans look to hold onto their advantage in the Senate.
Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats—and Republicans view flipping the seat as a potential pathway to maintaining control of the upper chamber.
But the poll shows El-Sayed, the first Muslim Democrat nominated for the U.S. Senate, performing better among voters who are most engaged in the election. He leads Rogers by 11 points among those who are extremely interested in the election, by 7 points among those who are extremely motivated to vote and by 4 points among voters who say they are certain to cast a ballot, the poll shows.
An El-Sayed campaign spokesperson told Newsweek on Friday when reached about the poll, “Michiganders of all political stripes are fed up with Donald Trump’s toxic agenda and Mike Rogers’ price hikes. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is running to take on corruption, get money out of politics, and put money back in the pockets of working families across our state who are getting crushed by the higher cost of health care, groceries, and gas. That message energizes Democrats, independents, and Republicans alike, and it’s why they’ll send Abdul El-Sayed to the U.S. Senate in November.”
Alyssa Brouillet, Communications Director for Rogers’ campaign, said in a statement to Newsweek on Friday, “Mike Rogers is carrying the momentum and defying the map–and it’s easy to see why. Turns out Michiganders have an issue with Abdul raising their taxes, taking over their healthcare, emptying the prisons, and killing their dogs. They know Mike Rogers will hold the line against this insanity and deliver real results for Michigan. We have a state to save.”
The dog remark from Rogers’ campaign comes as El-Sayed faced pushback online over allegations of animal mistreatment at Detroit Animal Care and Control during his time as health director. El-Sayed’s campaign refuted the allegations, telling Newsweek on Friday in part, “During Abdul El-Sayed’s tenure as Detroit Health Director, he dramatically reduced animal euthanizations and reversed the Detroit Animal Control’s abysmal save rate – nearly 80% of animals were placed into loving homes because of his implemented changes.”
The campaign said El-Sayed worked to address staffing shortages, including raising frontline animal-care officers’ pay by 15 percent. The campaign added that he also moved the operation into a modern facility and overhauled its protocols.
What To Know
That advantage among motivated voters comes as Democrats report higher levels of enthusiasm overall in the poll. Democrats are 15 points more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely interested in the election, 11 points more likely to say they are motivated to vote and 7 points more likely to say they are certain they will vote in November.
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science and in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, told Newsweek via email on Thursday: “First, it’s an encouraging sign that he is not trailing badly in the polls given how he is readily painted as an extremist and vehemently anti-Israel. It is trite to say it but true that the election will be all about turnout — turnout of the MAGA base and anti-leftist Republicans versus a fired up Democratic voting base that is fed up and angry with how they see Trump and his Republican congressional lackeys have not only failed to perform effectively on the inflation and affordability front, but have made things worse overall with the misguided war against Iran.”
The numbers could provide a worrisome sign for Republicans despite Rogers’ overall lead. If Democrats’ higher enthusiasm translates into stronger turnout, El-Sayed could have a path to closing the four-point gap and making the race significantly more competitive by Election Day.
The poll surveyed 1,006 Michigan registered voters from August 6 to August 10 and has a 4 or 4.5 percent margin of error on the question about the Senate election. The poll’s margin of error overall is 3 percent.
“The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout,” Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct Fox News polls alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, said in the survey.
“But El-Sayed’s nomination path highlighted party rifts. He needs to reassure a wide range of Michigan Democrats — including Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters and Black voters — that he will serve their interests rather than pursue an extremist agenda,” Shaw added.
El-Sayed’s strongest support comes from liberal voters, Black voters, urban residents and voters under the age of 30, while Rogers performs best among conservatives, white evangelical Christians, rural voters and white men without college degrees, according to the poll.
Men backed Rogers by 11 points, 55 percent to 44 percent, while women are essentially tied, with 49 percent supporting El-Sayed and 48 percent backing Rogers. The survey also found El-Sayed trailing Kamala Harris’ 2024 performance among Black, female and suburban voters, while Rogers is behind President Donald Trump’s support among voters under 30 and independents.
Trump won the state in the 2024 presidential election by less than two points and former President Joe Biden won Michigan in the 2020 election by less than three points.
The demographic breakdown in the poll highlights potential challenges for both candidates as they work to energize their bases and win over moderates as the November midterm nears.
The poll also shows that El-Sayed has a net favorability rating of -13 percent compared to Rogers’ -6 percent net favorability.
CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten said in part to Kaitlan Collins on Thursday night about El-Sayed’s underwater favorability in the new Fox News poll, “El-Sayed is significantly weaker than these other Democrats who are running, and I will also note, I went back, and I tried to find every single poll I could find at this point in previous Michigan Senate campaigns in the 21st century. I believe that El-Sayed being down by that 4-point margin, is the weakest that any Democrat has polled at this point in a Senate race this entire century.”
Meanwhile, El-Sayed’s criticism of Israel and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has also drawn scrutiny, particularly among Jewish Democrats concerned about his views on the U.S.-Israel relationship. His past comments and positions on Israel are likely to remain a discussion point in the general election. After his primary win, El-Sayed addressed accusations of antisemitism, saying in part, “To my Jewish American sisters and brothers … I want you to know that my commitment to your safety, my commitment to Jewish safety, is the same commitment that I have to the safety of my own daughters.”
What Other Polls Show
A survey from Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA showed Rogers up 3 percent over El-Sayed with 46 percent compared to 43 percent. The poll was taken before the primary election from July 24 to July 31 among 600 respondents and had a margin of error of 4 percent.
A Mitchell Research & Communications poll also taken before the primary showed a tie with both candidates landing 45 percent. The poll surveyed 672 likely voters on July 28 and July 29 and had an overall margin of error of 3.77 percent.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins and Gray R. Thomas.
