US voters will cast their ballots on 3 November in the midterm elections. These elections could significantly impact Donald Trump’s remaining presidency.
What Are the Midterms?
The midterms occur halfway through a president’s four-year term. They involve elections for members of Congress.
Congress has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both are vital for creating and passing federal laws.
These elections happen every two years. The results determine which party controls Congress and how easily the president can implement policies.
Who Is Being Elected?
All 435 members of the House will be up for re-election. House members serve two-year terms and introduce new legislation.
Thirty-five of the 100 Senate seats will be contested. Senators serve six-year terms and review laws passed by the House.
On the same day, voters in many states will also choose governors. Key races include California, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan.
Key Issues Voters Are Concerned About
- Economy: Inflation remains above the level targeted by the US Federal Reserve. Fuel, groceries, housing, and healthcare costs are pressing concerns.
- Trade: Democrats argue Trump’s programme of trade tariffs have also pushed up prices for Americans.
- Immigration: Republicans say Trump has delivered on a major campaign pledge in 2024 by tightening the border and launching a widespread – and often controversial – crackdown on illegal immigration.
- AI: Senior politicians from both parties have agreed on the need to regulate it – setting themselves in opposition to Trump, who has rejected the idea of laws to control development of the technology.
What Is at Stake?
Control of Congress is crucial for shaping legislation. The House and Senate are currently held by the Republican Party.
They have 218 seats in the House, which is the minimum number needed to control it, plus one independent who votes with them.
In the Senate, they have 53 seats and the minimum needed for control is 51.
If opposition Democrats win back control of at least one chamber, they will gain power to bring their own laws to the floor.
What Does This Mean for Trump?
If the Democrats win either the House or the Senate then Trump will find it difficult to get any laws through Congress. So his domestic plans could be frustrated, although he has found ways to exercise power without his wider party.
Democratic control of either chamber would also mean they could use committees to investigate aspects of the Trump presidency. Corruption allegations, the new White House ballroom and ICE tactics could be subject to scrutiny.
There is also a debate within the Democratic Party about whether to impeach Trump, which means to bring charges in Congress that will form the basis for a political, not criminal, trial.
What Does This Mean for the 2028 Election?
Trump is not on the ballot during midterms. However, he has urged Republicans to pretend that it is by voting for him as an endorsement of his actions so far.
Whichever way the results fall, commentators are likely to use them to make arguments about how voters feel about the direction of the country under Trump’s leadership.
Trump cannot run to be president a third time. After the midterms, we can expect speculation to start building about who might be his successor as the Republican presidential nominee for 2028 – and who might compete against that person for the Democrats.
What to Watch Next
Experts and media will closely monitor nine Senate races and 42 House races, especially in states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Ohio.
Partisan disputes over voting district maps have made this year’s elections more unpredictable.
The BBC’s US partner CBS News has identified these races as key indicators of the election’s outcome.
Source: BBC News – A simple guide to the US midterms Original article
Sources & further reading
Featured image: 2018 Midterm Elections Viewing Party (44874130505).jpg by US Embassy Canada, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Image source · License
