Many Australians have stopped worrying about respiratory viruses. The pandemic has passed and attention has shifted. COVID no longer dominates the headlines, and influenza is often dismissed as a routine winter illness.
But the latest provisional figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggest otherwise.
In 2025, there were 1,455 deaths in Australia due to influenza. This is the highest number the ABS has recorded in this series of data in modern times. This is more than in previous peak years, such as 2017 (1,276 deaths) and 2019 (1,072 deaths).
COVID continued its long decline as a cause of death. In 2025, there were 1,718 deaths due to COVID, down from 3,908 in 2024 and 4,613 in 2023.
These figures count deaths directly attributed to each virus.
The charts below also include deaths where the virus contributed but was not the main cause.
More importantly, between August 2025 and January 2026, influenza was the underlying cause of more deaths each month than COVID, a pattern we have not seen since the pandemic began.
None of this means COVID has disappeared. Far from it. But it means the mix of respiratory viruses is changing.
There’s also a third respiratory virus that often gets overlooked – respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.
Looking beyond case numbers
When people hear reports that a respiratory virus season is “bad”, they often think about case numbers, meaning the number of people testing positive for a particular disease.
But case numbers have become increasingly unreliable. Most people with a cough, sore throat or fever don’t get tested. Many never see a doctor. Even when they do, they aren’t always tested. And if they are, no test is 100% accurate.
That’s why epidemiologists often pay more attention to severe outcomes such as hospital admissions and deaths. Hospital admissions are generally a better measure than case notifications, but at the moment not all Australian states and territories report them consistently. That leaves deaths as the most reliable measure for comparing the impact of respiratory viruses over time.
The ABS data show that deaths caused by COVID have steadily fallen over the past three years, while deaths caused by influenza have moved in the opposite direction.
In 2024, influenza was recorded as the underlying cause of death in 807 Australians. Last year that almost doubled to 1,455. A big jump like that is unusual for a virus for which we have had vaccines for decades.
Influenza vs COVID deaths
One reason influenza appears to be doing so much damage is what we’re comparing it to – COVID – has become less deadly in recent years. Population immunity from vaccination and prior infection has substantially reduced the risk of severe disease.
COVID treatments are also available for people at high risk of severe disease, and hospital staff now have better ways of treating those severely ill.
Influenza behaves quite differently. The virus evolves rapidly, and vaccine effectiveness varies from year to year. As a result, immunity from last year’s infection or vaccination doesn’t necessarily provide much protection against this year’s strains. That is why a new influenza vaccine is needed every year. Some years influenza causes relatively little severe disease. Other years are much worse.
In 2025, we saw one of those years. A late-emerging H3N2 subclade K influenza variant (known as super K) extended the season and was poorly matched to the H3N2 strain in that year’s vaccine.
At the same time, influenza vaccine coverage among Australians aged 65 years and over was around 62%. This is down from 64% in 2023 and well short of the World Health Organization target of 75% for this age group.
Read more:
Can I get a free flu shot? And will it cover ‘super K’? Your influenza vaccine questions answered
Then there’s RSV
Lost in the discussion about flu and COVID is RSV. This is best known as a cause of illness in babies and young children. But older people can also become seriously ill.
In 2025, RSV was the underlying cause of 198 deaths in Australia. However, RSV is often recorded as a contributing rather than underlying cause of death because it can worsen conditions such as chronic lung disease or heart failure. In 2025, another 392 deaths listed RSV as a contributor.
Taken together, this points to RSV playing a much larger role in respiratory deaths – by both contributing to, and being the underlying cause of, death.
What does this mean for winter?
So, will 2026 be another severe flu year? We don’t yet know. What is clear, though, is all three viruses are circulating side by side, and any one of them could surge.
Early data suggest influenza deaths during January and February were roughly double those recorded during the same period in 2025. However, these figures can fluctuate considerably early in the year, so it is too soon to draw firm conclusions.
COVID deaths remain at relatively low levels, while RSV continues to circulate in the background.
Older Australians remain at greatest risk of death from all three viruses.
So vaccination still matters. People aged 65 years and over, aged-care residents, people with chronic health conditions, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, pregnant women and young children should be up to date with recommended vaccines.
The 2026 flu vaccine has been updated to better match last year’s troublesome H3N2 strain. Importantly, influenza, COVID and RSV vaccines can all be given at the same visit.
